Predictive dark-fleet screening for a marine mutual
A top-10 P&I club (anonymized)
Illustrative case study. Client identity is anonymized and figures represent the class of outcome MarineAware targets, not a specific contracted result.
Challenge
The club faced growing exposure to the sanctioned shadow fleet — vessels that disable AIS, spoof positions and hide behind shell ownership. Screening was reactive: a vessel was flagged only after it appeared on a designation list, by which point cover was already in force.
Approach
We built a behavioural risk score from AIS gap analysis, spoofing signatures, ship-to-ship transfer detection and flag-hopping, then resolved identity across MMSI, IMO number and beneficial owner using Equasis, S&P and Clarksons registries. Ownership-network graph analysis surfaced shell structures, and every score shipped with its data lineage so underwriters and regulators could defend it.
Outcome
Underwriters now receive an explainable risk score at the point of quote, with portfolio-level aggregation of exposure to designated and high-risk tonnage. Screening shifted from reactive to predictive without adding headcount.
This engagement is representative of MarineAware’s sanctions and dark-fleet work. Figures are illustrative of the class of outcome we target and are anonymized to protect client confidentiality.
Why behaviour beats blocklists
A sanctioned-vessel list tells you about yesterday’s risk. The shadow fleet’s whole purpose is to stay off those lists for as long as possible — new shells, fresh MMSIs, re-flagging, and carefully timed AIS gaps. Screening that only checks a name against a list is structurally late.
The behavioural approach asks a different question: does this vessel act like one that is hiding something? AIS gaps normalized against expected satellite coverage, impossible kinematics that betray location spoofing, loitering in known transfer zones, and rendezvous with other high-risk tonnage are all signals that precede a designation, not follow it.
Identity is the hard part
An MMSI is mutable and spoofable; an IMO number is stable but not always broadcast honestly. Resolving the real vessel — and the real owner behind it — means record linkage across registries and graph analysis over ownership, management and co-occurrence. That network view is what turns “this ship looks risky” into “this ship sits inside a structure we have seen before.”